"The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now."
5 min read · November 2023
November is the critical hinge month in supply chain. The decisions made by retailers, carriers, and logistics providers right now will determine who wins and who struggles through the holiday rush. Inventory levels, capacity commitments, and last-mile execution are all under the microscope.
The PMI reading for November came in at 49.4 — a slight improvement from October's 49.1. Manufacturing is still contracting, but momentum is shifting. Consumer sentiment is cautiously recovering as gas prices stabilize and the labor market holds strong.
After months of depressed spot rates, November is showing the early signs of seasonal recovery. Back-to-school shopping provided a mild lift in August-September, and now the holiday surge is beginning to pull capacity off the market. Carriers that survived the brutal freight recession of 2023 are starting to see light at the end of the tunnel.
Key metrics heading into peak season:
The National Retail Federation projected holiday sales growth of 2-3% for 2023 — modest by historical standards but better than the post-pandemic correction many feared. Consumers are still spending, but they're being selective. Discount retailers (Walmart, Costco, TJX) are outperforming while discretionary categories struggle.
"The holiday season tests every supply chain assumption you've made. The companies that prepared months ago will shine."
In September, I shared my bull and bear watchlist. Here's where things stand as we close out the year:
Yellow's bankruptcy proved the bear thesis on overleveraged, inefficient trucking companies. Forward Air (FWRD) continues to face headwinds as the post-pandemic freight market normalizes. Small and mid-size carriers that didn't manage costs aggressively enough are still struggling.
JB Hunt (JBHT), UPS (UPS), and FedEx (FDX) are all positioning for the peak season surge. Amazon's continued investment in its own delivery network is reshaping last-mile economics. Walmart's logistics infrastructure — its own trucks, distribution centers, and drone delivery pilots — gives it a structural cost advantage heading into 2024.
Cold chain logistics is seeing significant investment as pharmaceutical and specialty food supply chains demand more sophisticated monitoring. IoT-enabled temperature sensors and real-time alerting are becoming table stakes for reefer carriers.
Multiple logistics software platforms — Blue Yonder, o9 Solutions, Kinaxis — reported strong Q3 adoption of AI-driven demand forecasting tools. The technology is moving from pilot programs to core operational infrastructure.
"The holiday season tests every supply chain assumption you've made. The companies that prepared months ago will shine."
— Daivik Suresh, November 2023-DAIVIK SURESH-
Supply Chain + Business Analytics Enthusiast · November 2023