Supply Chain Journal December 2023

EOY 2023 โ€” Reflecting on a Year of Resilience & Innovation

"Passion is the currency of progress. Invest in your fire and watch the world blaze with possibility."

EOY Supply Chain Recap AI & Blockchain Federal Reserve Outlook 2024 Preview PMI Contraction Crude Oil Automation

5 min read ยท December 2023

"Passion is the currency of progress. Invest in your fire and watch the world blaze with possibility."

End of Year โ€” A Letter to My Readers

I started these journals as a hobby in August 2023 โ€” inspired by a friend, fueled by a desire to learn out loud. Six months later, I can't express my gratitude for those of you who read, responded, and pushed back with your own perspectives. Not only did I learn more about supply chain, economics, and freight โ€” writing helped me crystallize my thinking and sparked conversations I'll carry forward.

Thank you. Genuinely. Here's the year in review.

๐Ÿ“Š
Supply Chain Recap
PMI fell to 48.2 in December; oil pulled back to $71 after October's $92 spike

Supply Chain EOY Recap

48.2
Dec PMI
$71.02
WTI Crude (Dec)
49.4
Nov PMI

Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in December โ€” the lowest in four months, signaling continued contraction after a brief expansion in November. Oil prices pulled back to $71.02/barrel for WTI crude after October's spike to $92+. The volatility in energy markets throughout the year underscored how dependent global supply chains remain on oil pricing.

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AI & Blockchain
Amazon robotics handles 60%+ of warehouse ops; blockchain adds $1.7T economic potential

AI & Technology โ€” The Year's Biggest Supply Chain Story

AI & Machine Learning

Adoption accelerated dramatically. From demand forecasting to route optimization, AI is delivering measurable ROI. Companies that moved early are reporting 10-15% efficiency gains. This train is leaving the station โ€” get on board or get left behind.

Automation

Amazon set the standard, with robotics handling over 60% of operations in some warehouses. Robotic picking, autonomous guided vehicles, and AI-powered sorting systems are no longer future tech โ€” they're today's competitive baseline.

Blockchain

While crypto remained volatile, the underlying blockchain technology made quiet but meaningful progress in supply chain traceability. PwC estimates blockchain could add $1.7 trillion to the global economy over the next decade. Quantum computing races ($IBM, $MSFT, $NVDA) will determine how fast this scales.

"This year tested our patience, resilience, and Netflix subscription limits. But hey โ€” we made it."

๐Ÿฆ
Federal Reserve
Inflation at 3.4% โ€” still above target; rate cuts penciled for 2024 but uncertain

The Federal Reserve โ€” 2023 in Review & 2024 Outlook

2023 was defined by the Fed's aggressive response to inflation: seven rate hikes totaling 4.25 percentage points, and a massive reduction in their balance sheet. Inflation has come down meaningfully from its 9.1% peak โ€” but at 3.4% in December, it's still above the 2% target.

2024 Outlook: Rate cuts are penciled in for March 2024 โ€” but with lingering inflation, geopolitical wildcards (Ukraine, Red Sea tensions), and a strong labor market, the timeline could shift. The Fed's task is navigating a soft landing without triggering a recession. No pressure.

My personal positioning: still holding short-term treasury bonds at 5.17% yield โ€” the best risk-free return in a generation. Cautiously building exposure to AI and semiconductor plays as rate cut expectations support equities.

"This year tested our patience, resilience, and Netflix subscription limits. But hey โ€” we made it."

โ€” Daivik Suresh, December 2023

-DAIVIK SURESH-

Supply Chain + Business Analytics Enthusiast ยท December 2023
Not financial advice.
โ† November 2023 All Journals January 2024 โ†’