April 2024 Vol. 4 · 2024

SAP's AI Copilot, Self-Driving Semis & Rate Cut Reality Check

"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." — Benjamin Franklin

SAP AI Copilot Joule Aurora Self-Driving Trucks CPI 3.5% Crude Oil $84.83 Rate Cut Delay Supply Chain Workforce Inflation

5 min read · April 2024

Good Morning, Good Evening, and Good Night — wherever you're reading this from. Welcome back to the Daiiv Journal.

April Update — Reality Check on Rate Cuts

$84.83
WTI Crude/Barrel
3.5%
Annual CPI (Mar)
2.7%
Core PCE

April delivered a clear message from the data: rate cuts are not coming as soon as markets hoped. WTI crude climbed to $84.83/barrel. CPI hit 3.5% annually — above expectations. The World Bank projects the average oil price for the rest of 2024 at around $84. Geopolitical tensions continue to be the primary wildcard.

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Crude Oil Update
WTI at $84.83 — geopolitical tensions keep energy costs elevated

SAP's AI-Driven Supply Chain Revolution

SAP announced major AI advancements in its supply chain and manufacturing solutions this month. The centerpiece: Joule, SAP's AI copilot, which gathers and enhances new product ideas quickly, pulling insights from real-time data across supply chains to help companies make faster, better decisions.

These aren't pilot results — these are reported outcomes from SAP customers already running the platform. Enterprise software is becoming genuinely intelligent, and the ROI is measurable.

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SAP Joule AI
15% workforce productivity gain; 10% reduction in planning costs reported by customers

"If I'm brutally honest — I don't see any rate cuts this year. The data simply doesn't support it."

Aurora Innovation — Self-Driving Semis on the Highway

Aurora Innovation — founded by veterans from Uber's self-driving project, Google's Waymo team, and Tesla — is running 20 autonomous semitrucks on a 240-mile stretch between Dallas and Houston. They've been training in Texas since 2020, and the technology is now mature enough for commercial operations.

Aurora's vision: thousands of autonomous semis operating on U.S. highways within a few years. The technology fundamentally changes freight economics — no driver wages, no Hours of Service limits, optimized routing, and lower insurance costs over time. The question is no longer "if" but "when" and "how fast."
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Aurora Autonomous Trucks
20 driverless semis running Dallas–Houston; commercial scale within years

Rate Cuts — I Don't See It Happening in 2024

The biggest question for economists this year has been when the Fed will cut rates. The answer, based on the data: probably not in 2024. CPI keeps running hot. The Fed's preferred PCE metric sits at 2.7% — well above target. Election season adds political sensitivity to every Fed decision.

The FOMC mentioned three rate cuts for 2024 in their March projections. I said then we'd be lucky to see one. I'm now saying I don't see any. The market consensus is starting to catch up to that reality. Longer-for-higher on rates is the new baseline.

"If I'm brutally honest — I don't see any rate cuts this year. The data simply doesn't support it."

— Daivik Suresh, April 2024

-DAIVIK SURESH-

Supply Chain + Business Analytics Enthusiast · April 2024
Not financial advice.
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