"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." — Benjamin Franklin
5 min read · April 2024
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April delivered a clear message from the data: rate cuts are not coming as soon as markets hoped. WTI crude climbed to $84.83/barrel. CPI hit 3.5% annually — above expectations. The World Bank projects the average oil price for the rest of 2024 at around $84. Geopolitical tensions continue to be the primary wildcard.
SAP announced major AI advancements in its supply chain and manufacturing solutions this month. The centerpiece: Joule, SAP's AI copilot, which gathers and enhances new product ideas quickly, pulling insights from real-time data across supply chains to help companies make faster, better decisions.
These aren't pilot results — these are reported outcomes from SAP customers already running the platform. Enterprise software is becoming genuinely intelligent, and the ROI is measurable.
"If I'm brutally honest — I don't see any rate cuts this year. The data simply doesn't support it."
Aurora Innovation — founded by veterans from Uber's self-driving project, Google's Waymo team, and Tesla — is running 20 autonomous semitrucks on a 240-mile stretch between Dallas and Houston. They've been training in Texas since 2020, and the technology is now mature enough for commercial operations.
The biggest question for economists this year has been when the Fed will cut rates. The answer, based on the data: probably not in 2024. CPI keeps running hot. The Fed's preferred PCE metric sits at 2.7% — well above target. Election season adds political sensitivity to every Fed decision.
The FOMC mentioned three rate cuts for 2024 in their March projections. I said then we'd be lucky to see one. I'm now saying I don't see any. The market consensus is starting to catch up to that reality. Longer-for-higher on rates is the new baseline.
"If I'm brutally honest — I don't see any rate cuts this year. The data simply doesn't support it."
— Daivik Suresh, April 2024-DAIVIK SURESH-
Supply Chain + Business Analytics Enthusiast · April 2024