Inaugural Issue August 2023

Freight, Oil & The American Supply Chain

"Good Morning, Good Evening, and Good Night — wherever you're reading this."

PMI & Manufacturing Freight Markets Crude Oil Chip Shortage Truck Driver Shortage EV Trucking Labor Day Impact

5 min read · August 2023

Good Morning, Good Evening, and Good Night — wherever you're reading this. Welcome to the very first Daiiv Journal.

Welcome — The First Daiiv Journal

I just started my career as a Freight Broker at MoLo Solutions, and what I'm seeing on the phones every day demanded to be written down. This journal series is my attempt to document it — the real, raw state of the American supply chain. It's not just market commentary. It's an invitation to think, debate, and grow together.

At the EOD, how we supposed to grow if we don't share the wealth?

📉
Manufacturing PMI — Still Contracting
A reading below 50 means the sector is shrinking

PMI & The State of Manufacturing

47.6
August PMI
46.4
July PMI
8.6%
Peak Inflation Rate
$4.24
Avg Diesel ($/gal)

The Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.6 in August — slightly up from July's 46.4, but firmly in contraction. New orders, production, employment, and prices all reflect the strain. Rising input costs (raw materials, energy, labor) are squeezing margins at every tier of the supply chain.

The global chip shortage continues to compound matters — disrupting automotive, electronics, and medical production simultaneously. The EV revolution is accelerating semiconductor demand at exactly the wrong time.

📦
Freight Rates — Near Rock Bottom
Dry van spot rates collapse as capacity floods the market

Freight Markets — Rock Bottom?

Working the phones as a freight broker, the pain is visceral. Shippers dictate terms. Carriers take nearly any load just to keep moving. Owner-operators are bleeding.

The silver lining: rates historically rally mid-to-late August on back-to-school demand. Labor Day typically adds ~$0.10/mile. Seasonal recovery is on the horizon.

We are at rock bottom conditions. But rock bottom has a floor — and the rebound, when it comes, will reward those who stayed patient.

🛢️
Oil, Inflation & The Fed's Fight
The highest inflation in 40 years is reshaping every supply chain

Oil, Inflation & The Big Picture

We're living through the hangover of record 8.6% inflation. The Fed's aggressive rate hikes are taming it — but the consequences ripple through every supply chain: higher borrowing costs, slower consumer spending, and a freight market built for pandemic volumes that no longer exist.

The truck driver shortage deepens the problem — an aging workforce, demanding conditions, and regulatory pressure from the DOT limit capacity recovery. Consolidation is underway. Some carriers go bankrupt. Others merge. The ones getting squeezed? Everyone in the middle.

Key Takeaway

Supply chain issues aren't abstract market noise — they decide your cost of living, your business margins, and your portfolio. September is historically bearish. Position carefully and watch the data.

"For those of you that invest in the markets — September is historically a bearish month. Prepare accordingly."

— Daivik Suresh, August 2023

-DAIVIK SURESH-

Supply Chain + Business Analytics Enthusiast · August 2023

Not financial advice. Investing involves risk including the loss of principal. All views are my own.

All Journals September 2023 →